Becoming part of the solution

5 minute read

Fear has often played a significant role in shaping the foreign policy decisions of nations, and the United States is no exception. This essay explores potentially fear-based decisions made by the US government when formulating foreign policy, with a particular focus on the power it holds as the issuer of the petrodollar and the world’s reserve currency, the dollar, and its fear of loosing this position. The perception that the US must act as the world’s policeman to maintain peace and protect its own power will also be examined. Furthermore, this essay draws comparisons with the behaviour of the Roman and Greek empires, which eventually faced downfall. Additionally, the essay touches upon the context of US involvement in Ukraine as a case study.

The US wields immense power through the petrodollar system, where oil is primarily traded in US dollars, giving the US a significant advantage in global trade. This arrangement grants the US the ability to print money at will, as the demand for dollars remains high due to its necessity in international oil transactions. This power allows the US to exert influence over other nations and maintain its position as the global economic leader.

Controlling the global currency provides a distinct advantage for the United States, as it mitigates the historical reliance on taxes to fund wars. In the past, when the people no longer wished to finance a war through taxes, the fighting would often cease. By having a dominant global currency, the United States can bypass this limitation and continue to fund conflicts, regardless of public sentiment. This ensures that fear-based decisions and foreign policy choices driven by the desire to maintain power and influence can persist, even if they are not widely supported.

The US has long embraced the role of the world’s policeman, viewing itself as the guarantor of global stability and peace. This perception stems from the belief that by protecting its own interests and maintaining its global hegemony, the world is a safer place to live. This self-imposed responsibility often leads to fear-based decisions in foreign policy, driven by concerns over potential threats to its power and influence.

The behaviour of the Roman and Greek empires provides valuable insights into the potential consequences of fear-based decisions and the pursuit of global dominance. Both empires experienced a decline and eventual fall due to factors such as overextension, unpopular taxation, excessive military expenditures, and economic instability. Should the US learn from history and recognise the risks associated with pursuing an unsustainable path driven by fear and the desire for unchecked power?

One crucial aspect of US foreign policy involves the continuous generation of currency, undoubtedly facilitating their ability to engage in wars when deemed necessary. However, this practice also leads to currency devaluation and contributes to inflation. This parallels the approach adopted by the Roman Empire, gradually reducing the gold content in their coins and consequently diminishing the value of their currency over time. Ultimately, such a trend erodes trust in the currency and weakens its purchasing power. This consistent pattern has the potential to breed economic instability, thereby undermining the very foundations of their power and influence that they seek to protect. It is worth noting the irony that the shift from fossil fuels to renewables by the world could inadvertently reduce the global reliance on the petrodollar, placing additional pressure on their decision-making processes.

The US engagement in Ukraine exemplifies decision-making driven by fear. This is obviously a very complicated subject however it is understood that the enlargement of NATO and the possibility of Ukraine’s membership were perceived by Russia as encroachments on its sphere of influence, leading to escalating tensions. Even after receiving explicit warnings from Russia at the NATO 2008 conference in Bucharest and acknowledging the predictable outcomes, the US appears to have persisted in its policy, and could be said to have demonstrated a lack of regard for Russia’s historical and strategic concerns. This approach not only helped exacerbated bilateral relations but also played a role in the eruption of the conflict. Furthermore now the conflict has erupted the United States might now perceive the need to project their strength considering China’s evident ambitions to reclaim Taiwan.

In addition to the challenges and risks discussed, the advent of global Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) poses a new dimension to the United States’ position as the global currency issuer. With various countries exploring the development of CBDCs, there is a growing need for the United States to ensure that its version becomes the dominant global CBDC. This becomes especially crucial considering the pressure the petrodollar is experiencing.

Fear-based decisions in US foreign policy, driven by the desire to maintain power, protect the world’s reserve currency, and assume the role of the world’s policeman, carry inherent risks that we should all be aware of. Drawing parallels with the Roman and Greek empires serves as a reminder of the potential pitfalls of such decisions. Moreover, the constant creation of money must be carefully managed to avoid devaluation and inflation. Reflecting on the US involvement in Ukraine this could be interpreted as the consequences of disregarding the concerns and interests of other nations. Moving forward, a balanced and nuanced approach would be recommendable to address challenges while avoiding the dangers of fear-based decision-making.

Written by Stephen Griffin and ChatGPT